Kirill Pankratov (neznaika_nalune) wrote,
Kirill Pankratov

Битвы у трубы

На днях в одной стране её лидер (демократически избранный за несколько лет до этого) был свергнут решением парламента, и, опасаясь ареста или даже убийства самого себя и членов семьи, сбежал за рубеж на частном самолёте. За несколько месяцев до его побега страна впала в острый политический кризис и противостояние между двумя основными регионами, с разными традициями и политико-экономической ориентацией, так что многие жители даже не ощущают друг друга гражданами одной страны. Не так давно эта страна освободилась от тоталитарного режима, ещё революцию поддерживали западные страны, и западные СМИ не уставали предсказывать ей блестящее будущее. Страна, находившаяся когда-то на окраине античного мира, и много столетий служившая местом пересечения и столкновения различных цивилизаций, обладала неплохой (хоть и во многом устаревшей) инфраструктурой и довольно грамотным населением.

Ожидания, мягко говоря, не очень оправдались. Происводство основных экспортных товаров резко сократилось в последние месяцы. В столкновениях, непосредственно предшествующих бегству лидера страны, погибли десятки человек. Экономика страны в значительной степени завязана на углеводородную транспортную инфраструктуру, в частности, нефтегазовые трупопроводы и терминалы. Различные региональные группировки, завязанные на полностью коррумпированные олигарчические кланы, постоянно грызутся за куски пирога, перепадающие от экспорта природных ресурсов. Эти группировки имеют собственные отряды вооружённых боевиков, постоянно применяющих оружие. В последнее время перестрелки и столкновения происходят всё чаще. Ситуация продолжает ухудшаться.

Украина? Нет, это другая страна "победившей демократической революции", про которую уже как-то подзабыли: Ливия. Пару дней назад оттуда сбежал премьер-министр Али Зейдан, которого ещё недавно западные медиа выставляли в качестве чуть ли не образцового, умеренного, ориентированного на западные ценности, лидера пост-революционной арабской страны.

Ливия в последние месяцы почти исчезла из новостей. Но ситуацию там можно представить по некоторым публикациям последних дней:

Libya is impoding. Why doesn't David Cameron care?:
...A few days ago I went to a talk about Syria; one of those events for the concerned layman, in which a panel of experts give a briefing. Everything sounded depressingly familiar until expert number three piped up: I hear people blame Saudi Arabia and Qatar for the Islamists in Syria, he said, but in fact, they more often come from Libya. The crowd shifted in discomfort. Isn’t Libya done and dusted? Oh no, said the expert, it’s full of al-Qa’eda training camps now, especially in Benghazi.

My first thought, unusually, was to feel sorry for David Cameron. Remember how proud he was on his victory visit to Tripoli at the end of the Libyan war? There he stood in the five-star Corinthia hotel, by Sarko’s side, his arms full of flowers, his cheeks pink with pleasure. His friends say that these days Libya has become his ‘happy place’. When times are tough and backbenchers uppity, his mind wanders to Benghazi: well, at least we done good there. Just imagine him discovering that the worst offenders in Syria are those he liberated from Gaddafi. Nothing more infuriating than being hoist by your own petard.

But worse for Cameron, and for the allies of 2011, is that it’s not just Syria (or Mali, say) feeling the fallout. Three years on, unnoticed by most of the world, Libya itself has become a heartbreaking mess. Those same rebels who once formed the allies’ army have fractured into militias — more than 1,000, it’s said — some tribal, some Islamist, all at loggerheads. Assassinations and kidnappings have become routine; last year even the man in charge of investigating assassinations was assassinated.

As a measure of Libya’s descent, take that same Corinthia hotel where once our PM took a bow. In Gaddafi’s day it was impeccably secure, full of top dogs from BP sharing hubble-bubbles with junior members of the ruling family. Last August, the EU ambassador was rammed and robbed at gunpoint outside. Two months later, Libya’s then prime minister Ali Zeidan was kidnapped right out of the Corinthia by some antsy militia. Not so many oilmen at the bar there now...

Ещё: Forget Benghazi Conspiracies, The Real Disgrace In Libya Is What’s Happening There Now
The news that Libya’s parliament dismissed Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from office on Wednesday after the government failed to stop armed groups in eastern Libya from exporting oil independently should not surprise anyone — over the past year, the country has slipped deeper into chaos...

Ещё: Ousting of Libyan PM Ali Zeidan brings threat of civil war
The ousting of Libya's prime minister, who fled to Europe this week, has triggered fighting between eastern and western regions that threatens to divide the country. Ali Zeidan, a popular figure with western diplomats, was sacked by the Islamist-led congress on Tuesday after failing to prevent a North Korean tanker loading oil from a port controlled by rebels in the eastern region of Cyrenaica.

Fearing arrest following his dismissal, Zeidan made a late-night escape from Tripoli aboard a private jet, leaving behind a fractured government and a country in turmoil, fighting over its rich oil resources. Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves, but production has plummeted since the summer, when a self-declared federalist government was formed in Cyrenaica, which blockaded key oil terminals.

The rebels' argument is that much of Libya's oil is produced in the east but the revenue flows to Tripoli in the west; they have demanded a larger share of the income in return for lifting the blockade. Oil revenue is almost the only source of income for a country that – three years after Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in the Nato-backed Arab spring revolution – is characterised by militia violence, a moribund economy and pockets of Islamist radicalism.

The day after Zeidan's removal, the powerful Misrata militia, allied to congress, launched an offensive to retake the blockaded oil terminals, storming the base of an army special forces unit – the Zawiya Martyrs brigade – in the central city of Sirte, leaving five people dead. Within hours, federalist militias, backed by some units from Libya's small regular army, had set up a defence line at the Red Wadi, a natural feature that blocks the way to the oil ports...

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