Kirill Pankratov (neznaika_nalune) wrote,
Kirill Pankratov

В Греции есть всё... для дефолта

Похоже, события развиваются быстрее чем ожидалось всего неделю назад. В финансовых кругах вовсю уже обсуждаются планы по рестуктризации долга (мягкая форма дефолта), хотя политики пыхтят и клянутся что "да ни в жисть!".

Серьёнзая рестуктуризация, с потерей 15-20% net value - уже дело нескольких недель. Но она будет не единственной, потребуется ещё.

Свежая подборка из NYTimes:

Best Hope for Greece: Minimize the Losses
Only a few weeks ago, the idea that Greece might restructure its debt seemed like the nuclear option. Now restructuring — a polite alternative to outright “default” — is not only thinkable, but even likely.
And one way or another, many economists say, bondholders are expected to bear some of the burden.
In a full-fledged, Argentina-style default, investors would lose over half their money — an option that may be too severe for Greece to contemplate seriously. But even a so-called haircut, in which creditors absorb a relatively modest reduction in the face value of Greek bonds, could have dire consequences for the euro zone and the region’s beleaguered banks, which hold most of Greece’s bonds.
“Only a multiyear restructuring of the bond obligations, coupled with substantial deficit reduction, can achieve a permanent adjustment of Greece’s fiscal obligations without actually defaulting on the paper and giving all stakeholders a haircut,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said via e-mail on Sunday.
Mr. Weinberg has proposed converting all Greek bonds due until 2019 into a pool that would be refinanced with 25-year bonds. Assuming a 4.5 percent interest rate, this plan would cut Greek financing requirements by some 60 percent, or 140 billion euros ($187 billion), he estimated. Because 10-year Greek debt is now yielding more than 8 percent, those who have purchased Greek bonds recently would take a significant loss.

Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies, a research organization in Brussels, has proposed a similar plan. He favors simply extending the maturity of existing notes by five years, at the same interest rate. So, a five-year bond paying 6 percent annual interest would become a 10-year bond, still paying 6 percent interest.

То что предлагается в статье, будет недостаточно - долг слишком велик. Более $300 млрд, для сравнения - последний большой суверенный дефолт, в Аргентине в 2001 касался около $95 млрд бондов, при том что в Аргентине экономика в целом больше и жознеспособнее. За первой рестуктуризацией последует недолгое затишье, потом продолжение агонии, и скорее всего полноценный жёсткий дефолт.

But these plans overlook the basic organizing principle of Greek society — the family — and its stultifying influence on the economy.
Welfare programs like unemployment benefits and housing subsidies are already significantly smaller in Greece than in the rest of Europe; Greeks rely instead on government jobs and their families for support. It’s true that Greece’s public sector is expensive, rife with cronyism and in need of reform. But fixing it won’t fix Greece’s problems.
The more pressing issue is that the country’s private sector is comprised mostly of family-owned and family-staffed businesses that hinder competition and innovation and depress wages. In fact, austerity measures will only reinforce the family’s stranglehold on both the state and the market.
Upward of 75 percent of Greek businesses are family-owned. Most are small and rely on family labor, which is as flexible as it gets — in practice, no minimum-wage or maximum-hour laws apply. Women often work for their husbands without salary, and divorce laws don’t effectively ensure the divorcing spouse’s stake in the family business or remuneration for the work she put into it — meaning it’s very difficult to leave a marriage.
Young people are similarly constrained. The lucky ones land government jobs through family connections or work in a family business, “helping out” with no pay while formally unemployed...

The Greek debt crisis is the biggest challenge since those Yugoslav secessions to Europe’s attempt at overcoming its geographical and historical divisions. Whereas in the early decades of the cold war the European enterprise had to heal only the long-time rift between France and Germany, now it is a matter of Carolingian and Prussian Europe — Brussels and Berlin — incorporating the far-flung Mediterranean and Balkan peripheries.

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